Keep it simple, stupid. This has been my summer golf motto and it has transformed my game. As an avid amateur golf, I have been on the cusp of being descent to becoming good for a few years now. For those of you who play, this is nothing new. We all come back to the course after sticking it within a few feet from 200 yards out, draining a 20+ putt, or making the fleeting eagle. It makes you want to go for it, to swing for the fences, to have that rarified moment of glory. Not that I necessarily always lay up anymore, but I'm beginning to become more aware of the way a golf course is set up and playing a thoughtful round. I know when to hit a 7 iron on my second shot on a par 5 or when to hit laterally when I'm in the trees (this happens more often than I like.) I've gone from an 11 to an 8 handicap and I know I can continue to better through K.I.S.S.
Real estate is immensely complicated, objectively and subjectively. The past few years have compounded that. We have seen a tremendous amount of birdies and eagles that have set a new standard of expectations. It is the talk of every dinner party; who bought what at what price or who sold what at what price. We are obsessed with the leaderboard and many sellers and buyers are reacting and trying to mimic the swings and shots taken and the scores at the end of the day.
The reality is, golf is an incredibly hard game, but the simpler you make it, the easier it becomes. We see this on a daily process in the deals that we are fortunate enough to be a part of. The buyers and sellers who want to move forward with a deal, understand when to press on the gas and go for the green, or know when to play conservatively and take what the course gives you. Know your game.
As we move past the halfway point of the summer selling season, it is important to take stock of your goals and expectations. Here are a few things we recommend keeping in mind to improve your score:
- This time last year we were at $5.567B in sales in our local MLS. We are at $4.444B this year, a decrease of more than 25%+.
- 2023 YTD, we have seen the average days on market increase by more than 45%.
- There are over 83 listings above $10m currently on the market in Aspen, and only nine of those are under contract.
- There is a bifurcation in the market between new or remodeled properties and the rest of the resale market.
- Properties in the City of Aspen on average sell for 92-95% of the asking price.
- Sales volume though is down more than 30% compared to the first six months of 2022.
- Single-family homes in Aspen are down 15% YTD.
- The US home turnover rate in the first half of 2023 has fallen to the lowest in more than a decade.
- About 14 out of every 1,000 US homes changed hands during this period, down from 19 in the same period during 2019.
- From the peak in late 2020 to January this year, the monthly pace of home sales declined by 42%. We just experienced the fastest decline in the housing market on record.
- Only about 20% of consumers think it is now a good time to buy a home—down from 70% on the eve of the pandemic.
- The hedge fund mogul Bill Ackman said he’s betting against 30-year Treasury notes, a bearish move, believing U.S. inflation will hover around an elevated 3 percent.
Check out the best public course in the Roaring Fork Valley (big shoutout to AGC!)
