December 2022
I was fortunate enough to spend last week heli-skiing in British Columbia with an eclectic group of close friends from Aspen, LA, and NYC. We were quickly reminded that regardless of what is displayed on Instagram, timing and snow are fleeting. We skied for a few days and had the time of our lives, but it was not the waist-deep powder that we were expecting out of a heli mission in BC. This was a trip we planned over a year ago and mother nature did not deliver as desired.
When it comes to skiing, we all have assumptions about the best time of the year for snow, but do any of us really have an idea? People plan their entire year or just their daily work week around when and if it will snow. We check the sky, our apps, the television, different websites, and multiple radar systems to try and pinpoint when that perfect day will come. With all of the historical data, current data, and forecasts we make the best prediction we can, but just like interior BC, it is an educated and hopeful guess, even with our nightly snow dance
Timing the real estate market is not much different. For the past three years, the country and our local market have seen records for the number of sales, dollar volume, and prices per square foot. This was the result of the pandemic, historically low-interest rates, ease and cost of travel, fear of missing out, realignment of individual and family priorities, and the overall feeling that Aspen and the Roaring Fork Valley is a highly desirable place to be. While these three years have shaped the present and given us key indicators on what to track and look for in the future, there are still a number of unknowns; we are waiting to see how macroeconomic uncertainty will impact us in the valley. Here are some of our broad turns for what we see in the market today and where we are pointing our skis:
- Sellers still have a strong hand getting within 4% on avg. of their asking price.
- 2022 was historically the third strongest year in the Roaring Fork Valley in terms of total dollar sales and transactions (the other two being 2020 and 2021).
- 2023 is shaping up to be more of a housing market correction than a recession. 2020-2022 were outliers.
- Prices have remained strong increasing 30%+ in most areas due to limited inventory.
- There is only so much dirt available in the Roaring Fork Valley. There are 0 demolition permits available in the City of Aspen until 2024.
- Remodels and new construction can be a 3-5 year permitting and building process in Pitkin County with increasing costs and challenges.
- Buyers who have access to capital or financing will step up in a down market.
- Prospective returns are more than ample as buyers increasingly become hesitant and more risk-averse. Fewer skiers on the mountain.
- Homeowners are less incentivized to sell with 2-3% interest rates and an increasing barrier of entry to get back in the market.
- The Rule of 4’s. Morgan Stanley sees an environment in the future with 4% Fed rates, 4% inflation, and 4% unemployment.
- The Aspen Snowmass lifestyle is one-of-a-kind. People recognize that and are willing to sacrifice in order to be a part of it.
Looking down on the mountains in BC, searching for that perfect line, was a spiritual experience. It was also a reminder of how lucky we are to live in the Roaring Fork Valley and ski our mountains, where more often than not it is that bluebird day we are all searching for. We would love to hear more about whether you are thinking about buying, selling, or renting and where you think the perfect run is.
November 2022
Aspen Snowmass and the entire Roaring Fork Valley have been blessed with enough snow that it feels like it is late January. The excitement is palpable and we are back in the thick of things. Leah was voted Ms. Snowmass and my dad and her husband, Bill, was voted Mr. Snowmass. Suffice it to say, they have been deeply committed to our community, which they have been actively involved in for 40+ years. They are so grateful to have been recognized and appreciate the gesture.
This got me thinking about the importance of community. Moriarty Realty takes pride in doing more than the average real estate broker; we consider our client's lifelong partners and give strategic guidance and help in every stage of a transaction. How this shows up is in the people we know and invest in. It is one of our greatest pleasures to be able to refer businesses to locally-owned companies that provide exceptional service. Everything from lenders to inspectors, to general contractors, to architects, to lawyers, to property managers, and the list goes on. We operate as a team to make sure our clients have the best experience from beginning to end and long afterward.
We took that mentality and have applied it to real estate professionals throughout the country and the world. We have long-standing relationships and have been on the phone for the past few months checking in and speaking with our network of brokers. This helps us keep a pulse on the national market, discuss any micro and macro level trends, share best practices, and allows us to align ourselves with some of the most exceptional humans in the business.
One of the other reasons we do this is to be able to help our clients when they are buying and selling in markets outside of Aspen Snowmass. We believe that regardless of the area, we want to be able to confidently recommend who to work with knowing that it will be a good fit and they will be taken care of. We work hand-in-hand with these brokers when they have clients who are looking in Aspen Snowmass and vice versa when we have clients in other markets; we consider our services an extension of one another. At the end of the day, this business is about the people and we have surrounded ourselves with the best. Below I've shared a few of our network's incredible listings. Please reach out if you would like us to make an introduction to one of our many partners in the business.
October 2022
The leaves have fallen, our mountains have the first blanket of snow, you can find a parking spot in town, and people are biking too late and skiing too early. It's officially the off-season in Aspen Snowmass and the Roaring Fork Valley. Growing up here, this was an annual occurrence. Locals were able to take a deep breath and reset and escape town for a much-needed break. It was expected from restaurants that closed for a few weeks each year, to hotels, and rentals who baked 70% into their expected occupancy rates.
The past few years have been an exception to the rule. Aspen Snowmass has seen a massive influx of wealth, development, population, and overall change. We will see over $10 billion dollars of transactions from 2020-2022. Growth and change became our expectations. This fall with the colors turning and a slow off-season in Aspen Snowmass for the first time since the pandemic began, we are gently reminded in the words of Warren Buffet, "Under most conditions, it is difficult. It is a very competitive world. Real estate is more accurately priced most of the time."
- The inventory of active listings in the U.S. grew 33.5% year over year in October, surpassing 2022 levels.
- Prices have risen significantly in our local markets over the past few years, and most neighborhoods have experienced a 15-20%+ jump in the average price per square foot for sold properties in comparison to this time last year.
- We saw a 48% decrease in sales in Q3 for Single-Family homes and condos in Aspen and Snowmass Village, but a 41% in the price per square foot during the same time period.
- Aspen Snowmass has seen 494 new listings in 2022, which is a 28% decrease compared to this time last year when we saw 632 new listings at this same time.
Real estate in Aspen Snowmass is green one day, yellow the next, and sometimes even brown, but it will always be green again. We are impacted by worldwide factors including looming recessions, market speculation, an ongoing crisis in Ukraine, and a wait-and-see approach at the Federal level with rising interest rates. What remains constant though is that people make it a priority to be in the Roaring Fork Valley. It is not an overnight success story and we will continue to see strong prices per square foot even with a fluctuating inventory. The evolving market allows for more choice, more patience, and more negotiation, but it does not change people's perception, mood, desire, and want to be in Aspen Snowmass.
There are other Vails, Jackson's, Crested Butte's, Sun Valley's Telluride's, but only one Aspen Snowmass. Please reach out to us if you think like we do that there is no better time than the present to start your legacy. We are biased and bullish.
September 2022
We hear talking heads, neighbors, and peers question and predict the market. We are in uncertain times, which creates skepticism and fear-mongering. Each transaction is relative to the individuals involved though and we wanted to point out some generalizations that may work out in your favor as a seller or a buyer right now:
- Sellers will adjust their expectations vs. six months ago, but they are still selling at a premium.
- Buyers will never get into the market by what-iffing. Keep in mind, uncertainty creates opportunity.
- Sellers can get back into the market and makeup on any lost value on the buy side.
- Unique single-family homes, condos, and land will still demand a premium. The land is finite in Aspen Snowmass and those fortunate enough to have a jewel should have high expectations.
On a personal note, the seasons are turning in Aspen Snowmass and we are gearing up for what is expected to be white winter. Leah spent a few days on the Colorado river with long-time colleagues and friends and also made it back east a few different times for family weddings. She also has been enjoying taking golf lessons and has hosted plenty of BBQs and dinner parties and is getting ready to help Caroline move to NYC. I (Walker) had a fury of weddings in Hawaii, Montana, Baltimore, and Philadelphia that I was fortunate enough to be included in. I've also finished building a custom road bike, golfed as much as possible, and am restoring a 1971 Dodge Pickup truck.
August 2022
The job of a real estate agent in Aspen Snowmass is multifaceted; we wear multiple hats on any single day and while some fit better than others, it's important we still have them in our closet. This can range from identifying off-market opportunities, rentals, comps, staging, photography, negotiations, marketing, branding, hand-holding, amateur therapy, packing, shipping, and the list goes on. We love it because every day is different, we mesh as a team and complement each other's strengths, and together are responsible for our entire business and our client's success, from beginning to end.
I want to share my thoughts on one specific part of our job, pricing. It is more pertinent than ever because, for the past two years, it was less strategic. There were numbers being thrown at the wall like spaghetti and more times than not, they were sticking. Records for price per square foot were being shattered on a weekly basis and our market grew upwards of over 100%. While we are still on pace for dollar volume, the transactions are drastically down, more than 50%, what we take from this is that the $10+M market is still trading at a considerable rate historically, while the $2-5M market has seen an increase in inventory.
Part of our job, and part of where we see our relationships with our clients as a collaborative partnership is setting the expectations around pricing, especially when it comes to our sellers. We all have access to comps, a solid understanding of historical sales, and active inventory, but that is one part of the conversation. Understanding the family dynamic, the timing in one's life, the outside circumstances, and the urgency can play a major role in pricing.
We take pride in being able to have realistic, honest, and collaborative conversations with our clients. It is critical to be cognizant of the objective and subjective factors when days on market and price reductions put a Scarlet Letter on any property in an increasingly competitive market. If you are curious to learn more about our process and how we have helped our sellers average 97% of their asking price with no price reductions, please let us know. We are always here.
July 2022
Happy 4th of July! We hosted our annual party and had over 150 people join us to have burgers, brats, an egg toss, and some drinks. It was a great time and we wanted to thank everybody who came, we hope to see the rest of you next year! There are only three rules; there are no invitations, bring a salad, and stay home if it's raining.
Conversations around the real estate market in Aspen Snowmass have become as normal as asking how the weather is rightfully so. There is a lot of speculation in the world right now, but the visitors, restaurants, and airport this weekend affirmed that people want to be in Aspen Snowmass. The question is, what are they willing to sacrifice in order to make it happen?
Price per square foot, the average number of days on the market, the number of available listings, and recent comps are statistics that we look at on a daily basis and often use to validate our conversations with buyers or sellers. But what has also become clear is that historical data doesn't always tell the full story i.e. the weatherman isn't always right. Real estate is as subjective as it is objective and so when we are seeing more sales above $3,500/SqFt than in all of 2021 combined, some people's desire to be in Aspen Snowmass can often outweigh what their neighbor paid in 2020.
A change has clearly occurred on the national level and it feels like it is shifting on the local level, but the objective part of our business is still very optimistic. We would love to partner with you to understand your personal situation and what the best decision is for you at this time.
April 2022
With the off-season comes closed restaurants, empty streets, snow in May, skiing one day, golf another, and the Fed raising their interest rates.
It all feels somewhat correlated and symbolic. This country and this town have been running at full speed for two years now. Everybody recognizes it and everybody is trying to guess when and if that correction will happen. If someone tells you with certainty that the market will crash or that we will continue to grow, I urge you to think about their motives.
But what I subjectively know is that this valley needs a deep lion's breath. Between the moratoriums, developers, housing shortage, rising prices, new restaurants, residential development and construction, and an influx of people, everybody needs a Shavasana. Objectively what I can tell you and what jumped out at me the most is that the price/square foot of sold listings in Aspen was $3,309 for May and it was $2,651 for April. On top of that, dollar volume is up, but transactions are down 25% compared to last year, meaning we have a lot more homes at $25M+ v. less than $2M.
I'm not suggesting one thing or another, but this off-season feels appropriate on a local level and on a national level. Enjoy your family, wish your mom Happy Mother's Day, and take in Spring. We are here if you would like to discuss your home or if just want to go for a bike ride and play a round of golf!
March 2022
Ever since moving back from NYC, I have become a ferocious reader of local news, mostly Aspen Daily and Aspen Times. This is not to say I still don't go through the Journal and Times every morning, but my priority has gone from world news to local news. Good or bad, my neighbors, friends, and family in this valley take precedent.
A few of the topics that have dominated our local airwaves include the City of Aspen's moratorium on short-term rentals and residential development, Gorsuch Haus sale, shortage of local housing, Mark Hunt, and the exit of local restaurants (see below). As a real estate broker, but more importantly, as someone who was born and raised here, all of these topics are near and dear to my heart and have a tremendous impact on all of us.
One of the most common questions I'm asked in regard to all of this is, "Will Aspen be able to retain its character and charm?" What I urge everyone to keep in mind is that Aspen Snowmass is a one-of-a-kind place because of the people that live here. And while there are a few questionable apples, this town and its heart and soul are going nowhere. Let's all take a step forward with spring amongst us. I'm happy to talk about all of this extensively, so please give me a call whenever!
Eat local. Ski local. Drink local. Buy local. Think local.
February 2022
Dream Big, 2022. We have had a great start to the year and have so much to be thankful for. Professionally we have had two great closings, a number of rentals, working with our buyers to find their dream home, and helping owners who are thinking of taking advantage of this unprecedented market. Inventory is at a historic low and owners are getting multiple offers at or above the asking price. We still have a hard time believing though that the market will dip significantly anytime soon; people still want to be here and there is a finite amount of land and properties we are working with.
Personally, it's all smiles and hard work. Leah and Bill just took a much-deserved vacation with long-time friends and clients where they had plenty of laughs, food, and therapeutic saltwater. I have been enjoying every second of the winter - we always 'need' more snow, but the mountain is in great shape and the skiing will always beat Vail.
We're excited about what the rest of the year has to offer and please reach out if you're coming to the Roaring Fork Valley soon!
December 2021
Before you are flooded with emails, we wanted to reach out and wish you Happy Holidays! Wherever you are, we hope you are with your loved ones celebrating, laughing, loving, and giving.
Our business and our personal lives are anchored by the respect and appreciation we have for the Roaring Fork Valley and the community at large. We have called this place home for 40+ years, and are continuously inspired by the authentic, down-to-earth experience the valley affords. We’re here to be your partners, helping you find your home, but also the lifestyle and community that makes this corner of the earth so special. We are forever grateful for our family, friends, and clients who bring it all together.
October 2021
For the past few months, we have been working behind the scenes on rebranding our personal business - Moriarty Realty. We are very much still part of Sotheby's but wanted to take the opportunity to examine where we can improve to ultimately help our clients. You'll see some snippets below and in the next few months, we will be launching a new website. The idea below is the root of all the designs that you'll see and how we operate on a day-to-day basis. Make sure to follow us on Instagram @moriartyrealty and please vote for Bill and Leah who were nominated for Mr. and Mrs. Snowmass!
Our business is anchored by the respect and appreciation we have for the valley we live in. We are deeply committed to our community, and our born-and-bred Aspen Snowmass roots allow us to be truly connected to this land.
Aspen Snowmass has only recently developed a more rigid reputation, but we know that this valley is an inspiration — an authentic, down-to-earth experience with unforgettable people, culture, and lifestyle. We have lived here for 40 years, and are inspired every day by the legacy and integrity of our community.
The process of helping our clients find their home is an intensely personal one; we take pride in guiding them every step of the way. We’re here to be their partner, helping them find the home they are after and the lifestyle and relationships that come with it.
September 2021
Summer is slowly coming to an end and leaves are beginning to turn. We had two of the busiest weekends of the year with the annual Jazz Fest over Labor Day weekend and Food and Wine the following weekend. Some of the highlights included Eric Church, Jimmy Buffett, Michelin star food, and top-shelf wine and liquor. They exceeded expectations and we're very thankful they were able to happen after taking a year's hiatus! Next year Food and Wine will be returning in June (dates TBD).
A question we try to understand and answer on a daily basis is, 'are we going to continue to see the Roaring Fork market grow at this pace?'
Looking at the national landscape, we are beginning to see a little bit of a pullback. Bidding wars, which is two or more offers on a house, dropped to the lowest levels this year, and mortgage applications are on the rise, but only 0.3% v. last week. There is also the dreaded uncertainty of the spreading Delta variant, which affects supply chains, labor, and more.
But none of these factors have had much influence on our local market. There continues to be historically low inventory with high demand. The cat is out of the bag. People see the value of this town, the lifestyle it affords, and at the end of the day, there is only so much dirt that you can buy or build on! On top of that, our Governor Jared Polis recently floated the idea of eliminating state income tax. We remain bullish on Aspen Snowmass. Here are some statistics we wanted to share from July and the beginning of August:
- Percent of list price received 96.4%
- Avg sales price of single-family - Aspen: $16M, SMV: $5.3M
- Avg sales price of townhouse/condo - Aspen: $2M, SMV: 1.15M
July 2021
It has been a beautiful and busy summer in Aspen Snowmass. We had our annual 4th of July party where 150 of our friends, families, and clients gathered at our house to celebrate! Other than that, we have been enjoying the craziness at work and trying to carve out time to do as much biking, hiking, and golfing as we can. If you're in town this summer, please be sure to let us know and we would love to buy you a drink or dinner.
The market has been busy; we are up almost 100% in total transactions year-to-date (674) v. 2020 (340). There has been a general misconception about inventory. While it was slow for the winter, new listings have emerged and we are up more than 62% (426 new listings) from this time last year. Some other market facts we wanted to share:
- Percent of list price received 96.3%
- Avg sales price of single-family - Aspen: $14.5M, SMV: $6.3M
- Avg sales price of townhouse/condo - $2.1M, SMV: $900K
- Total sales volume YTD - 2020: $1B, 2021: $2B
April 2021
Aspen Snowmass closes for the winter this upcoming weekend. We want to thank all of you that we’re able to join us for a few days, weeks, or the entire winter to not only enjoy this special place but also support our local businesses and community at large. We are continuously blown away by the support of each of you and the steadfast commitment of our frontline workers. More than ever before, "IT TAKES A VILLAGE."
We have had a roaring start to the year and are very excited to carry the momentum into the spring and summer. We are working with our current sellers and buyers as well as a number of prospective clients to ensure they have the necessary resources and marketing materials needed to achieve their goals. If you have any questions about your home or you are interested in learning more about the market, we would love to help.
In other updates, Leah has been on her Peloton morning, noon, and night and continues to find complete joy as the local photographer for all the sporting events in the valley. Walker is almost fully recovered from back surgery and has found a new passion in helping coach the Aspen High School Football team. All is well with the Moriarty's and we hope the same for you!
February 2021
Leah Moriarty, who has been a top broker in Aspen Snowmass for 30 plus years remains a staple of the community, earning the title, Ms. Snowmass in 2020. She has cemented herself as a consummate professional in a market that is rapidly changing — and is coming off a year north of $40 million in sales. Her mantra still to this day is, "it’s not who I am, it’s just what I do.” She is thrilled to bring her son on board as a partner and together continue to elevate their clients' experience.
Walker Moriarty has been on the East Coast for the past 10 years. He originally went east to attend Dickinson College, where he majored in Business Management, Political Science, and was the captain of the football team. Since then he has been living in NYC and working most recently for a privately backed software company that was acquired at the end of 2020.
He was the Head of Partnerships, where he built an internal organization that went from generating 10% to more than 50% of the company's revenue in all of North America.
After a quick introduction, you will find that their energy and commitment to give back, represent this valley in the best light, and to do right by the people around them is palpable. Whether you are looking for your dream home, a cabin in the woods, a place for your grandchildren to visit — or you just want to know the best restaurants, bike trails and ski runs — please don't hesitate to reach out to Leah and Walker. They would be delighted to be your local partner, to work tirelessly on behalf of you and your family, and share their special secrets about what truly makes this valley home.
