Powder Panic. It's a term recently learned and somewhat self-explanatory: when it snows a lot the night before and we wake up the next morning, check our apps, and the rush ensues to get out the door with a piece of warm, most likely burnt toast and mug of black coffee (no oat milk). The juices are flowing and the race begins to get to our mountain of choice. We all have preferences; mine is Aspen Mountain, but I know plenty of people who prefer the endless acreage on Snowmass, rush to get one glorious lap on the Bowl (and then talk about it for the next week), the select few who have a cult-like obsession with being a Tiehack Tyrant, and then, of course, those who in the strangest manner, don't ski on powder days.
Regardless of how each of us chooses to spend our day when our valley is blanketed in white, we all have Powder Panic. It causes brash decision-making. We become reactive, impulsive, and nearsighted. We ditch friends, remove fear, and sacrifice our bodies for the elusive perfect line. Sometimes the risk is worth the reward, and then other times it is not. Hysteria is powerful. Just read the local letters to the editor in the Aspen Daily News and their beloved guest columnists (see The Local Know).
For the past three years, our entire valley has had a steady dose of Powder Panic, especially in the commercial and residential real estate market. While Jerome Powell could not be reached for comment, I think it is safe to assume he would agree on a national level, as he continues to be hawkish on inflation. What does that mean for our valley that has seen hyperinflation?
Sales in the Roaring Fork Valley are down 40% year to date, but that is misleading because we are coming off of the three busiest years we have ever seen.
Even with the number of transactions down, the price per square foot has remained steady.
- Sellers recognize that this is not Denver. We don't build up, and we are almost finished building out. There are currently only 73 vacant lots for sale from Aspen to Carbondale.
- It is a question of priorities and willingness to compromise. New construction and legacy properties are demanding premiums, while the rest of the market occasionally shows signs of softening and negotiations to be had.
- There are 30 properties above $20M for sale in Aspen and only three under $2M.
- We are influenced by mortgage rates, regardless of how many cash buyers exist.
- Demands on profitability make most free-market new construction projects for local, affordable housing unfeasible. We are heavily reliant on our city and county for deed-restricted properties.
- From land to materials to labor, to time, and to the complexity of counties and cities, construction is expensive and incredibly difficult in this valley. People pay for it.
- The rising tide raises all boats. Aspen retailers and other businesses submitting a sales-tax report to the city realized $1.22 billion in sales, a 19.3% increase over 2021.
The biggest takeaway is that the majority of us, full-time residents or tourists, make sacrifices to be here, but most of us are willing to justify those sacrifices to be able to stand in line with our fellow skiers as our lifts wake with the morning sun and we all rush to get our own taste of Powder panic. Hysteria is powerful.
