Snow Globe. Recently, we were speaking with a prospective buyer and he asked our two cents on the health of the market in the next year. Was it going to continue to appreciate? Was it going to flatten? Was there going to be any sort of significant pullback? I immediately made the mistake of using a cliche line that I'm sure we all have heard or used ourselves before "I don't have a crystal ball" He immediately jumped in and reminded me that no, we don't, but we have a professional opinion. One that is multi-generational with informed experience. We know when and how to call a spade a spade. It was a gracious reminder of, in his words, one of the many reasons why he works with us.
It is similar to how we bemoan the lack of snow, praise the existing snow, or forecast the snow that has yet to come. It is especially relevant this year; the winter has underperformed by all measures, but it is an El Nino year, it is snowing as I write this, and of course, our mountains perform best, whether there is a lot or not a lot of snow (praise be to the Rockies, north facing slopes, and our world-class groomers).
My point is that we don't know what the market will look like for the remainder of the year, nor do we know how much snow is going to fall. That will not stop us from forecasting the health of the market or the winter and helping guide our clients to where the secret stashes are. There are endless caveats and contradictions locally and nationally about what 2024 will look like. Will bulls overzealously bank on fresh snow and potentially be let down by corduroy? Will bears refuse to acknowledge the consistent attraction of Roaring Fork Valley? Not overly pessimistic or optimistic, but in a methodical, consistent, process-oriented approach. That is where the opportunity and the good ski days are.
- In December 2023, there were 12 closings in Aspen at an avg. of $2,762/SqFt. In January 2024 there were 22 closings in Aspen for an average of $3,366/SqFt. Seasonality still exists and there is still a massive appetite for Aspen.
- 702 E Hyman in Aspen closed in May 2023 for $12.5M and retraded 6 months later for $13M. We are still seeing the upside.
- There are 85 single-family homes for sale in Aspen, 45 are in West Aspen.
- Of the 72 properties under contract in Snowmass Village, only seven of which are single-family homes. Much of this is due to the new developments at The Cirque and Aura in Base Village.
- In January, properties in Snowmass Village traded at 50% compared to Aspen.
- Six properties closed in Basalt in January for an average of $912/SqFt. There were 10 that closed in Carbondale for an average of $788/SqFt. Both provide great alternatives to Aspen and Snowmass Village.
- Nationally, we went from a market that saw about 6M home sales in 2022 to about 3M in 2023.
- Housing prices in the US were surprisingly resilient last year in the face of a jump in mortgage rates. 2023 was a great year for the contrarians.
- US home prices are projected to increase 5% this year, up from the previous forecast of 1.9%.
- Single-family home construction has seen a significant rise, signaling renewed optimism in the housing market.
- Even those at the very high end - maybe even more so - discover that they have to compromise on at least one thing when searching for a home.
- LA Mansion Tax: Initially projected to earn the city over $900 million annually, it has raised around $142 million since its implementation last April.
